Cilt:27 Sayı:02 (2021)

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Determining the Effects of Climate Change and Market Prices on Farm’s Structure by Using an Agent Based Model
(Ankara Üniversitesi, 2021-06-04) MANSOORİ, Hooman; GHORBANİ, Mohammad; KOHANSAL, Mohammad Reza; Ziraat Fakültesi
In this study, an agent-based model was used to simulate structure change of farms during 20 years period of climate and market price changes in the rural area of Eslamshahr City in Iran. Decision rules that used in the model are based on the information that collected by direct interviews with farmers. So the model includes rules that define the relationship between agents and their environment. Results clearly showed that farmers' behavior patterns and the cover of agricultural land in the region affected by environmental and market factors changes. Comparison of the results of model implementation for various scenarios has shown that the highest yield and income loss has occurred in scenarios where there was a 10% reduction in access to water. Also, there is a less decrease in the crops land size in groups which includes small and medium farmers.