Türkiye'de kayıt dışı istihdamın modellenmesi üzerine bir çalışma
Özet
Informal economy, unregistered economy, is an activity which is hided from the related public foundation and institution; therefore it is not possible to control. Informal economy is an important issue in Turkey, because the government suffers from too much tax leakage. The most important and primary subtitle of the informal economy is seen as informal employment. Therefore, this study named as "A Study on Modeling the Informal Employment in Turkey" which has the main subject of informal employment, is fulfilled in this thesis. The aim in this study, is obtaining a well-adjusted model with data sets in considering of informal employment in Turkey. In theoretical background part of the thesis, definitions of time series analysis and methods used are mentioned. In the original part of the study, dataset of informal employment between years of 2005-2015 in Turkey which is obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute is used, the related dataset is examined for suggesting linear and nonlinear models and obtained models are inspected according to the required hypothesis proves. By selecting appropriate models for hypothesis, forecasting of the informal employment for the future months are made. As a result of the study, arrangements for reducing the number of informal employment are evaluated under the experts' opinions.