Riskli ortamlarda karar verme
Özet
Decision theory provides rules for the determining an action that results in the optimal result for a decision. For decisions under risk an important strategy is to maximize expected value. This expected value may be monetary or a value determined by a utility function. The strategy of maximizing expected value may not result in selecting or avoiding actions where the relative improbability of an outcome is outweighed by the magnitude of its desirability. The majority of quantitative approaches to decision selection have used probability theory to value the desirability and likelihood of outcomes which provide selecting the appropriate action in the situation mentioned above.This thesis presents an approach that uses quantitative representations of probability and desirability for determining expected value, as criteria of decisions under risk