İthal ara malı girdilerin varlığında ödemeler dengesi kısıtlı büyüme modeli: Türkiye örneği
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In this thesis study, long-term growth performance of Turkey is examined using two versions of the balance of payments constrained growth (BOPCG) model developed by Thirlwall (1979). The first of these is the Multi-Sectoral BOPCG model developed by Araujo and Lima (2007). The other is the Multi-Sectoral BOPGC model developed by Araujo et al. (2019), which also considers the import of intermediate inputs used to produce final export products. In this context, the study aims to explain the growth performance of the Turkish economy for the period 1970-2019 to determine which of these two extensions is more appropriate and the effect of imported intermediate input on export and growth performance. In order to obtain the elasticities used in calculating the growth rates in the study, the export demand, final import demand, and intermediate goods import demand functions are estimated for five sectors using the ARDL method. Considering the estimated income elasticities and the percentage share of each sector in total exports, final imports, and imports of intermediate goods, growth rates compatible with the balance of payments are calculated as suggested by the Multi-Sectoral BOPCG models. The results show that the use of imported intermediate inputs contributes significantly to the exports, but Turkey's high dependence on imports of intermediate goods leads to a decrease in the Multi-Sectoral BOPCG growth rate.