Çevrimli, Mustafa BahadırArıkan, Mehmet SaltukTekindal, Mustafa Agah2021-10-072021-10-072020-03-03https://doi.org/10.33988/auvfd.570790http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12575/75319The purpose of the present study is to develop models for the time series data of honey prices in Turkey between 1998 and 2018 using Box-Jenkins and Winter's Exponential Smoothing methods and to evaluate the TRY- and US − d e n o m i n a t e d f o r e c a s t s m a d e u s i n g s u c h m o d e l s f o r 2019 − 2020. T h e m e t h o d e m p l o y e d t o a n a l y s e t h e t i m e s e r i e s d a t a i s t h e S e a s o n a l A u t o R e g r e s s i v e I n t e g r a t e d M o v i n g A v e r a g e ( S A R I M A ) . T h e m o s t s u i t a b l e m o d e l t o f o r e c a s t t h e h o n e y p r i c e s w a s f o u n d t o b e S A R I M A ( 2 , 1 , 2 ) ( 1 , 0 , 1 ) f o r T R Y − d e n o m i n a t e d p r i c e s a n d S A R I M A ( 0 , 1 , 3 ) ( 0 , 0 , 0 ) f o r U S -denominated prices. It was forecast that the average price of 1 kg of honey would be 49.08 TRY/6.15 US$ at the end of 2020. Since the study will provide beekeepers with information on future prices, it will help them better plan their production activities. The price forecasts in this study will be useful for producers and those involved in sale of honey with respect to prediction of how the honey prices will change in the years to come.enTurkeyForecastingTime seriesArticle6721431521308-2817